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KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
58%
EPS
52%
ICON
47%
AIFS
39%
HRES
33%
Consensus
46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 45.1¢Risks 45.15u
VS
HRESNO 54.9¢Risks 54.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.85u · HRES −54.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-19T04:31:46+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00AIFS Single: 60.2% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T07:34:10+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00AIFS Single: 47.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00AIFS Single: 38.9% · 2026-10-19T13:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 38.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T07:34:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-19T07:34:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 57.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:46+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00IFS HRES: 55.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T07:34:10+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS HRES: 32.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 32.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00ICON: 31.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:46+00:00ICON: 31.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00ICON: 31.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00ICON: 31.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T07:34:10+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:09+00:00ICON: 47.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:46+00:0060.2%22.8%47.4%55.4%31.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:0060.2%22.8%57.6%55.4%31.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:0060.2%22.8%57.6%55.4%31.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:0060.2%22.8%57.6%55.4%31.7%
2026-10-19T07:34:10+00:0047.6%22.8%57.6%32.7%47.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:0047.6%22.8%57.6%32.7%47.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0047.6%22.8%57.6%32.7%47.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0047.6%22.8%57.6%32.7%47.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:0047.6%22.8%57.6%32.7%47.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:0047.6%51.7%57.7%32.7%47.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:0047.6%51.7%57.7%32.7%47.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:0047.6%51.7%57.7%32.7%47.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:09+00:0038.9%51.7%57.7%32.7%47.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:0038.8%51.7%57.7%32.6%47.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 258%80.3°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%80.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble52%79.7°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON47%79.1°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend39%78.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
AIFS Single39%78.1°F4.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES33%76.9°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗