KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

22%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.3¢Risks 14.25u

EPSNO 85.8¢Risks 85.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.75u · EPS −85.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.0%	0.5%	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.5%	3.1%	0.0%	—	3.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.6%	12.4%	3.9%	—	5.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	4.2%	2.7%	—	2.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	9.0%	0.0%	—	0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	1.2%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	1.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	26%	83.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	84.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	80.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	80.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	77.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 19:56 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tucson · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗