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KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
26%
HRES
22%
AIFS
5%
WN2
4%
EPS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 14.3¢Risks 14.25u
VS
EPSNO 85.8¢Risks 85.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.75u · EPS −85.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.6% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.6% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00ICON: 26.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:0010-17 19:5610-18 00:2710-18 07:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T19:56:23+00:006.5%2.5%4.6%22.4%26.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:006.5%2.5%4.6%22.4%26.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:41+00:006.5%2.5%4.6%22.4%26.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:006.5%2.5%4.6%22.4%26.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:08+00:006.5%2.5%5.6%22.4%26.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:006.5%2.5%5.6%22.4%26.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:29+00:006.5%2.5%5.6%22.4%26.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:006.5%2.5%5.6%22.4%26.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:005.1%2.5%5.6%22.4%26.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:25+00:005.1%2.5%5.6%22.4%26.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:005.1%2.5%5.6%22.4%26.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:41+00:005.1%2.5%3.6%22.4%26.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON26%83.1°F9.9°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
IFS HRES22%84.6°F6.5°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
AIFS Single5%80.1°F5.8°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 24%80.3°F5.1°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%77.9°F5.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast2%77.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
National Blend<1%76.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 19:56 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tucson · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗