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KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≤ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
9%
HRES
6%
AIFS
3%
WN2
2%
EPS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 4.9¢Risks 1.22u
VS
EPSNO 95.1¢Risks 23.77u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.77u · EPS −23.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 67.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 44.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 58.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.8% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 95.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 35.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 59.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 74.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 95.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 33.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 34.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 9.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 55.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 97.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-09 12:0010-15 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0071.7%————55.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0011.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0067.5%————2.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0061.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0041.5%————3.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0076.8%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0029.7%————4.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0014.0%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0044.2%————4.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:006.1%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0041.5%————4.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0029.7%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0018.6%————5.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0013.4%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0061.0%————7.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0029.7%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0022.7%————9.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0018.5%—————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:009.0%————8.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0013.4%—74.9%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0035.0%————3.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0024.4%—————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0058.7%————10.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0043.5%—1.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0013.7%————14.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0038.4%—19.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0042.5%————24.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0022.6%—29.8%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0022.1%—28.4%——9.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0015.5%—6.1%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0015.1%95.3%26.5%——10.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0013.8%—5.4%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0013.4%8.2%6.9%95.8%—6.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0016.1%—6.1%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:007.9%16.5%1.0%4.2%—3.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:009.2%—1.1%———
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0021.6%35.8%2.8%4.4%—5.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0010.9%—0.5%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0017.9%11.9%0.7%33.7%—7.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0024.3%—3.9%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0031.5%8.3%4.3%14.3%—15.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0027.4%59.3%2.8%——97.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0015.6%14.1%2.8%34.6%9.7%11.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0013.0%—6.9%——5.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON9%77.1°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast7%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES6%78.2°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%79.2°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend3%77.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%78.0°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%79.5°F3.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 70°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-LE70
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Tucson stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 70°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗