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KTUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≤ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
9%
HRES
6%
AIFS
3%
WN2
2%
EPS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 4.9¢Risks 1.22u
VS
EPSNO 95.1¢Risks 23.77u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.77u · EPS −23.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00IFS HRES: 6.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00IFS HRES: 6.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00ICON: 8.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:35+00:002.9%1.1%2.2%6.2%8.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:50+00:002.9%1.1%2.2%6.2%8.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:002.9%1.1%2.2%6.2%8.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:002.9%1.1%2.2%6.2%8.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:002.8%1.1%2.2%6.1%8.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON9%77.1°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast7%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES6%78.2°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%79.2°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend3%77.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%78.0°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble1%79.5°F3.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 70°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261024-TMAX-LE70
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Tucson stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 70°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗