KTUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

88%

77%

73%

55%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 75.9¢Risks 75.90u

ICONNO 24.1¢Risks 24.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +24.10u · ICON −24.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	25.7%	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	74.8%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	0.1%	54.0%	—	—	86.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	82.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	28.1%	54.2%	0.2%	—	85.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	52.2%	83.0%	57.3%	—	79.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	64.2%	48.5%	80.5%	—	69.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	35.9%	60.3%	29.5%	28.1%	56.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	45.9%	—	—	51.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	97%	90.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	84.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	81.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	55%	79.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	79.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗