KTUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

88%

77%

73%

55%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 75.9¢Risks 75.90u

ICONNO 24.1¢Risks 24.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +24.10u · ICON −24.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:02:04+00:00	83.9%	55.7%	87.1%	86.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	83.9%	55.7%	87.1%	86.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	83.9%	55.7%	87.1%	86.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	83.9%	55.7%	87.1%	86.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T11:03:07+00:00	83.9%	77.0%	84.6%	86.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	83.9%	77.0%	84.6%	86.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	83.9%	77.0%	84.6%	86.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:05+00:00	83.9%	77.0%	84.6%	86.1%	8.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	80.8%	77.0%	84.6%	86.1%	7.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:21+00:00	80.8%	77.0%	84.6%	86.1%	7.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:42+00:00	80.8%	77.1%	84.6%	86.1%	7.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	80.8%	77.1%	84.6%	86.1%	7.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	80.8%	77.1%	80.0%	86.1%	7.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	80.8%	77.1%	80.0%	86.1%	7.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	80.8%	77.1%	80.0%	86.1%	7.9%
2026-10-18T19:28:03+00:00	79.8%	77.1%	80.0%	96.6%	55.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	79.8%	77.1%	80.0%	96.6%	55.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:21+00:00	79.8%	77.1%	80.0%	96.6%	55.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	79.8%	77.1%	80.0%	96.6%	55.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	79.8%	77.1%	80.0%	96.6%	55.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	79.8%	77.1%	88.0%	96.6%	55.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	79.8%	77.1%	88.0%	96.6%	55.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	79.8%	77.1%	88.0%	96.6%	55.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	72.9%	77.1%	88.0%	96.6%	55.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:50+00:00	72.9%	77.1%	88.0%	96.6%	55.2%
2026-10-19T03:00:01+00:00	72.9%	77.1%	88.0%	96.6%	55.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	72.9%	77.1%	88.0%	96.6%	55.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	97%	90.3°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	84.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	77%	81.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	55%	79.8°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	79.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 79°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗