KTUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

78%

73%

72%

59%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 71.8¢Risks 71.85u

EPSNO 28.2¢Risks 28.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +28.15u · EPS −28.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	—	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	78.1%	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	43.7%	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	7.1%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	0.1%	65.2%	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	54.1%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	70.8%	48.6%	0.1%	—	79.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	53.6%	94.3%	63.6%	22.1%	70.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	67.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	85.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	83.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	83.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	83.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	80.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 20 · 04:06 UTC

Original listing: Tucson high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗