KTUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Tucson, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST10%Oct 21 · 15:08 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

40%

33%

26%

Consensus

10%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 22.9¢Risks 22.90u

EPSNO 77.1¢Risks 77.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +77.10u · EPS −77.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	22.8%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	4.2%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.0%	9.6%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	11.2%	3.6%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	4.1%	39.9%	6.9%	0.5%	10.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	7.0%	6.0%	11.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	1.4%	—	3.6%	—	9.0%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	9.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	40%	88.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	87.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	86.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	81.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-21 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	83.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-21 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	82.0°F	3.8°F	2026-10-21 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KTUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KTUS-20261026-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 19 · 07:34 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Tucson · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗