KABQ / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

40%

26%

10%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 34.8¢Risks 34.80u

WN2NO 65.2¢Risks 65.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +65.20u · WN2 −65.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	5.1%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	5.0%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.5%	7.2%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	18.9%	5.1%	0.0%	—	14.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	35.0%	24.9%	2.6%	—	9.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	16.4%	20.5%	1.4%	—	7.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	13.1%	14.0%	0.5%	—	5.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	12.9%	4.3%	0.9%	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	15.2%	2.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	34.6%	9.0%	19.0%	—	15.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	49.1%	3.6%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	42.7%	5.3%	73.4%	—	14.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	27.6%	26.1%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	44.2%	5.6%	42.3%	—	13.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	49.0%	8.8%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	17.6%	14.5%	78.8%	—	11.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	35.5%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	52.2%	16.2%	82.4%	—	8.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	41.0%	40.0%	0.0%	—	6.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	33.1%	23.3%	81.7%	0.0%	5.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	37.0%	38.1%	83.3%	—	6.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	36.5%	17.4%	84.1%	52.5%	10.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	48.7%	80.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	26.2%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	62%	77.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	75.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	74.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	71.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	72.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗