KABQ / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

40%

26%

10%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 34.8¢Risks 34.80u

WN2NO 65.2¢Risks 65.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +65.20u · WN2 −65.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:35+00:00	13.8%	44.6%	7.4%	9.3%	57.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	13.8%	44.6%	8.2%	9.3%	57.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	13.8%	44.6%	8.2%	9.3%	57.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	13.8%	44.6%	8.2%	9.3%	57.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	13.8%	44.6%	8.2%	9.3%	57.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:46+00:00	13.1%	44.6%	8.2%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	13.1%	44.6%	8.2%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	13.1%	44.6%	8.2%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00	13.1%	44.6%	8.2%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	13.1%	39.3%	4.8%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	13.1%	39.3%	4.8%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	13.1%	39.3%	4.8%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	13.1%	39.3%	4.8%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	12.6%	39.6%	4.8%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	12.6%	39.6%	4.8%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:37+00:00	12.6%	37.3%	4.8%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	12.6%	37.3%	4.8%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	12.6%	37.3%	4.0%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	12.6%	37.3%	4.0%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	12.6%	37.3%	4.0%	42.9%	51.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	11.6%	37.3%	4.0%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	11.6%	37.3%	4.0%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	11.6%	37.3%	4.0%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	11.6%	37.3%	4.0%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	11.6%	37.3%	4.0%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	11.6%	37.3%	4.5%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	11.6%	37.3%	4.5%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	11.6%	37.3%	4.5%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	10.7%	37.3%	4.5%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	10.7%	37.3%	4.5%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	10.7%	37.3%	4.5%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	10.7%	37.3%	4.5%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00	10.7%	37.3%	4.5%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	10.7%	37.3%	4.8%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	10.7%	37.3%	4.8%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	10.7%	37.3%	4.8%	20.3%	23.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:00	10.0%	37.3%	4.8%	51.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	10.0%	37.3%	4.8%	51.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	10.0%	37.3%	4.8%	51.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	10.0%	37.3%	4.8%	51.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:23+00:00	10.0%	37.3%	4.8%	51.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:00	10.0%	34.2%	2.9%	51.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	10.0%	34.2%	2.9%	51.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	10.0%	34.2%	2.9%	51.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	10.9%	34.2%	2.9%	51.9%	48.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	10.8%	34.2%	2.9%	51.9%	48.9%
2026-10-20T04:05:27+00:00	10.3%	35.2%	4.4%	51.9%	30.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	10.3%	35.2%	4.4%	51.9%	30.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	10.3%	35.2%	5.0%	51.9%	30.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	10.3%	35.2%	5.0%	51.9%	30.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	10.3%	35.2%	5.0%	51.9%	30.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	9.7%	35.2%	5.0%	51.9%	25.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	9.7%	35.2%	5.0%	51.9%	25.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	9.7%	35.2%	5.0%	51.9%	25.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	9.7%	35.2%	5.0%	51.9%	25.8%
2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00	9.7%	40.0%	7.9%	61.7%	25.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	9.7%	40.0%	7.9%	61.7%	25.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	9.7%	40.0%	7.9%	61.7%	25.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	9.7%	40.0%	7.9%	61.7%	25.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	9.7%	40.0%	7.9%	61.7%	25.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	9.7%	40.0%	7.9%	61.7%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	62%	77.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	76.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	75.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	74.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	71.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	72.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗