KABQ / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

80%

68%

66%

49%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.3¢Risks 70.30u

WN2NO 29.7¢Risks 29.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.70u · WN2 −29.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	15.2%	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	28.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	17.1%	67.0%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	55.6%	25.7%	11.5%	—	16.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	17.9%	39.9%	52.9%	—	50.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	44.7%	69.7%	62.0%	—	51.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	89.1%	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	88.9%	82.6%	90.0%	—	26.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	60.5%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	63.1%	74.2%	89.9%	—	24.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	44.9%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	72.4%	68.6%	75.9%	—	35.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	78.5%	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	71.0%	90.2%	93.0%	—	33.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	80.4%	85.2%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	87.4%	85.8%	93.2%	94.4%	47.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	89.0%	—	—	57.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	75.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	72.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	70.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	66%	70.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	67.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗