KABQ / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

80%

68%

66%

49%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 70.3¢Risks 70.30u

WN2NO 29.7¢Risks 29.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +29.70u · WN2 −29.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:22+00:00	12.6%	86.5%	19.4%	25.3%	70.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	12.6%	86.5%	34.0%	25.3%	70.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	12.6%	86.5%	34.0%	25.3%	70.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	12.6%	86.5%	34.0%	25.3%	70.6%
2026-10-17T07:45:00+00:00	67.1%	86.5%	34.0%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	67.1%	86.5%	34.0%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	67.1%	86.5%	34.0%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	67.1%	86.5%	34.0%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	67.1%	86.5%	34.0%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	67.1%	92.8%	63.4%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	67.1%	92.8%	63.4%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	67.1%	92.8%	63.4%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	66.5%	92.8%	63.4%	73.5%	42.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	66.5%	92.7%	63.4%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T15:25:13+00:00	66.5%	91.4%	63.4%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	66.5%	91.4%	63.4%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	66.5%	91.4%	50.9%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	66.5%	91.4%	50.9%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	66.5%	91.4%	50.9%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	66.5%	91.4%	50.9%	73.8%	42.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:15+00:00	75.9%	91.4%	50.9%	67.5%	66.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	75.9%	91.4%	50.9%	67.5%	66.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	75.9%	91.4%	50.9%	67.5%	66.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	75.9%	91.4%	50.9%	67.5%	66.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	75.9%	91.4%	49.1%	67.5%	66.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	75.9%	91.5%	49.1%	67.5%	66.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	75.9%	91.5%	49.1%	67.5%	66.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	75.9%	91.5%	49.1%	67.5%	66.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	80.2%	91.5%	49.1%	67.5%	66.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	80.2%	91.5%	49.1%	67.5%	66.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	80.2%	91.5%	49.1%	67.5%	66.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	92%	75.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	72.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	70.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	66%	70.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	67.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	67.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261023-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗