KABQ / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

72%

42%

24%

18%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.2¢Risks 48.15u

AIFSNO 51.8¢Risks 51.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.85u · AIFS −51.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	18.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	72.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	20.7%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.0%	21.8%	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	30.5%	73.7%	2.7%	—	14.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	37.1%	76.8%	43.4%	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	35.1%	74.9%	33.0%	—	9.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	68.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	38.2%	56.4%	36.7%	—	11.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	60.7%	56.6%	43.4%	—	9.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	14.2%	71.2%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	59.6%	84.9%	44.8%	41.3%	14.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	92.2%	—	—	22.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	70.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	70.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	66.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	64.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	63.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗