KABQ / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Albuquerque, NMHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

72%

42%

24%

18%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.2¢Risks 48.15u

AIFSNO 51.8¢Risks 51.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.85u · AIFS −51.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:36+00:00	39.7%	73.0%	10.9%	37.2%	57.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	39.7%	73.0%	15.0%	37.2%	57.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	39.7%	73.0%	15.0%	37.2%	57.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	39.7%	73.0%	15.0%	37.2%	57.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	39.7%	73.0%	15.0%	37.2%	57.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:46+00:00	50.0%	73.0%	15.0%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	50.0%	73.0%	15.0%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	50.0%	73.0%	15.0%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:28+00:00	50.0%	73.0%	15.0%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	50.0%	50.0%	23.4%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	50.0%	50.0%	23.4%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	50.0%	50.0%	23.4%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	50.0%	50.0%	23.4%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	49.3%	50.0%	23.3%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	49.3%	50.0%	23.3%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:37+00:00	49.3%	48.4%	23.3%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	49.3%	48.4%	23.3%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	49.3%	48.4%	24.0%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	49.3%	48.4%	24.0%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	49.3%	48.4%	24.0%	34.7%	60.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	28.3%	48.4%	24.0%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	28.3%	48.4%	24.0%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	28.3%	48.4%	24.0%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	28.3%	48.4%	24.0%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	28.3%	48.4%	24.0%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	28.3%	48.4%	19.6%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	28.3%	48.4%	19.6%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	28.3%	48.4%	19.6%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	37.0%	48.4%	19.6%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	37.0%	48.4%	19.6%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	37.0%	48.4%	19.6%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	37.0%	48.4%	19.6%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:24+00:00	37.0%	48.4%	19.6%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	37.0%	48.4%	19.6%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	37.0%	48.4%	19.6%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	37.0%	48.4%	19.6%	27.7%	59.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:41+00:00	25.2%	48.4%	19.6%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	25.2%	48.4%	19.6%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	25.2%	48.4%	19.6%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	25.2%	48.4%	19.6%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:23+00:00	25.2%	48.4%	19.6%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:13+00:00	25.2%	62.5%	16.5%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	25.2%	62.5%	16.5%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	25.2%	62.5%	16.5%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	22.7%	62.5%	16.5%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	22.7%	62.5%	16.5%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	22.7%	62.5%	16.5%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	22.7%	62.5%	16.5%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	22.7%	62.5%	16.5%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	22.7%	62.5%	21.8%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	22.7%	62.5%	21.8%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	22.7%	62.5%	21.8%	43.1%	57.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	10.5%	62.5%	21.8%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	10.5%	62.5%	21.8%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	10.5%	62.5%	21.8%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	10.5%	62.5%	21.8%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	10.5%	62.5%	21.8%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	10.5%	62.5%	17.1%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	10.5%	62.5%	17.1%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	10.5%	62.5%	17.1%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	20.9%	62.5%	17.1%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	20.9%	62.5%	17.1%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	20.9%	62.5%	17.1%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-20T04:05:27+00:00	20.9%	62.5%	17.1%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	20.9%	62.5%	17.1%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	20.9%	62.5%	17.8%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	20.9%	62.5%	17.8%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	20.9%	62.5%	17.8%	48.6%	74.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	18.5%	62.5%	17.8%	48.6%	71.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	18.5%	62.5%	17.8%	48.6%	71.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	18.5%	62.5%	17.8%	48.6%	71.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	18.5%	62.5%	17.8%	48.6%	71.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:10+00:00	18.5%	77.5%	24.2%	42.1%	71.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	18.5%	77.5%	24.2%	42.1%	71.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	18.5%	77.5%	24.2%	42.1%	71.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	18.5%	77.5%	24.2%	42.1%	71.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	18.5%	77.8%	24.2%	42.1%	71.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	18.5%	77.8%	24.2%	42.1%	71.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	70.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	72%	70.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	67.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	66.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	24%	64.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	63.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KABQ

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KABQ-20261024-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Albuquerque high ≥ 68°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗