KATL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

79%

47%

46%

37%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.7¢Risks 60.75u

EPSNO 39.3¢Risks 39.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.25u · EPS −39.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	25.5%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	21.8%	—	51.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	85.6%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	6.7%	—	47.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	81.1%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	14.1%	—	52.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	63.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	5.2%	62.0%	—	45.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	79.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.7%	57.0%	21.9%	9.9%	35.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	73.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	75.7%	55.8%	39.2%	46.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	62.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	64.2%	61.3%	25.8%	47.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	62.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	65.5%	74.5%	16.9%	50.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	1.1%	51.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	59.9%	57.5%	32.2%	51.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	57.6%	60.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	67.8%	65.4%	24.1%	53.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	64.9%	65.8%	—	48.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	66.1%	63.6%	37.3%	43.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	58.5%	69.9%	—	38.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	60.6%	74.5%	28.7%	39.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	62.8%	64.7%	—	42.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	45.9%	73.2%	20.4%	35.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	52.1%	69.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	48.9%	69.9%	22.1%	39.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	50.0%	64.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	77.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	77.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	74.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	46%	74.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	73.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗