KATL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

79%

47%

46%

37%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.7¢Risks 60.75u

EPSNO 39.3¢Risks 39.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.25u · EPS −39.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:18+00:00	77.3%	40.5%	80.8%	49.4%	30.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:38+00:00	77.3%	27.9%	80.6%	49.4%	30.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	77.3%	27.9%	80.6%	49.4%	30.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	77.3%	27.9%	80.6%	49.4%	30.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	55.0%	27.9%	80.6%	49.4%	30.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	55.0%	27.9%	80.5%	49.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:05+00:00	55.0%	31.5%	80.5%	49.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	55.0%	31.5%	80.5%	49.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	55.0%	31.5%	80.5%	49.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	55.0%	31.5%	78.8%	49.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	55.0%	31.5%	78.8%	49.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	55.0%	31.5%	78.8%	49.4%	30.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	68.5%	31.5%	78.8%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	68.5%	31.5%	78.8%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	68.5%	31.5%	78.8%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	68.5%	31.5%	78.8%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	68.5%	31.5%	78.8%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	68.5%	31.5%	80.5%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	68.5%	31.5%	80.5%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	68.5%	31.5%	80.5%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	63.9%	31.5%	80.5%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	63.9%	31.5%	80.5%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	63.9%	31.5%	80.5%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	63.9%	31.5%	80.5%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:50+00:00	63.9%	31.5%	80.5%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	63.9%	31.5%	77.0%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	63.9%	31.5%	77.0%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	63.9%	31.5%	77.0%	47.5%	71.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:09+00:00	86.7%	31.5%	77.0%	73.3%	85.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	86.7%	31.5%	77.0%	73.3%	85.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:42+00:00	86.7%	31.5%	77.0%	73.3%	85.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	86.7%	31.5%	77.0%	73.3%	85.3%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	86.7%	31.5%	77.0%	73.3%	85.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	86.7%	31.5%	79.8%	73.3%	85.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	86.7%	31.1%	79.8%	73.3%	85.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:09+00:00	86.7%	31.1%	79.8%	73.3%	85.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	60.2%	31.1%	79.8%	73.3%	85.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	60.2%	31.1%	79.8%	73.3%	85.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	60.2%	32.4%	79.8%	73.3%	85.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:56+00:00	60.2%	32.4%	79.8%	73.3%	85.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	60.2%	32.4%	76.0%	73.3%	85.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	60.2%	32.4%	76.0%	73.3%	85.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	60.2%	32.4%	76.0%	73.3%	85.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	60.2%	32.4%	76.0%	73.3%	85.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	87.9%	32.4%	76.0%	65.9%	78.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	87.9%	32.4%	76.0%	65.9%	78.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	87.9%	32.4%	76.0%	65.9%	78.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	87.9%	32.4%	76.0%	65.9%	78.1%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	87.9%	33.6%	79.2%	65.9%	78.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	87.9%	33.6%	79.2%	65.9%	78.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	87.9%	33.6%	79.2%	65.9%	78.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	85.5%	33.6%	79.2%	65.9%	78.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	85.5%	33.6%	79.2%	65.9%	78.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	85.5%	33.6%	79.2%	65.9%	78.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	85.5%	33.6%	79.2%	65.9%	78.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00	85.5%	33.6%	79.2%	65.9%	78.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	85.5%	33.6%	83.2%	65.9%	78.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	85.5%	33.6%	83.2%	65.9%	78.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	85.5%	33.6%	83.2%	65.9%	78.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	85.5%	33.6%	83.2%	65.9%	78.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	89.8%	33.6%	83.2%	65.9%	78.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	89.8%	33.6%	83.2%	65.9%	78.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	89.8%	33.6%	83.2%	65.9%	78.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	89.8%	33.6%	83.2%	65.9%	78.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	89.8%	58.6%	79.6%	65.9%	78.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	89.8%	58.6%	79.6%	65.9%	78.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	89.8%	58.6%	79.6%	65.9%	78.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	89.8%	58.6%	79.6%	65.9%	78.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	86.6%	58.6%	79.6%	65.5%	78.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	86.6%	61.5%	79.6%	65.5%	78.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	86.6%	61.5%	79.6%	65.5%	78.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00	86.6%	61.5%	79.6%	65.5%	78.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	86.6%	61.5%	78.2%	65.5%	78.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	86.6%	61.5%	78.2%	65.5%	78.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	86.6%	61.5%	78.2%	65.5%	78.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	83.3%	61.5%	78.2%	65.5%	74.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	83.3%	61.5%	78.2%	65.5%	74.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	83.3%	61.5%	78.2%	65.5%	74.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	83.3%	61.5%	78.2%	65.5%	74.2%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	83.3%	61.5%	78.2%	60.2%	74.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	83.3%	61.5%	77.5%	60.2%	74.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	83.3%	61.5%	77.5%	60.2%	74.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	83.3%	61.5%	77.5%	60.2%	74.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	84.8%	61.5%	77.5%	60.2%	74.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	84.8%	61.5%	77.5%	60.2%	74.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	84.8%	61.5%	77.5%	60.2%	74.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	84.8%	61.5%	77.5%	60.2%	74.1%
2026-10-17T04:41:09+00:00	84.8%	61.5%	77.5%	60.2%	74.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	84.8%	61.5%	83.5%	60.2%	74.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	84.8%	61.5%	83.5%	60.2%	74.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	84.8%	61.5%	83.5%	60.2%	74.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:03+00:00	86.7%	61.5%	83.5%	62.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	86.7%	61.5%	83.5%	62.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	86.7%	61.5%	83.5%	62.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	86.7%	61.5%	83.5%	62.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	86.7%	61.5%	83.5%	62.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	86.7%	65.5%	89.2%	62.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	86.7%	65.5%	89.2%	62.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	86.7%	65.5%	89.2%	62.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	80.3%	65.5%	89.2%	62.6%	78.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	80.2%	65.5%	89.1%	62.6%	78.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	80.2%	65.5%	89.1%	62.6%	78.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	80.2%	65.5%	89.1%	62.6%	78.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	80.2%	65.5%	89.1%	62.6%	78.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	80.2%	65.5%	88.1%	62.6%	78.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	80.2%	65.5%	88.1%	62.6%	78.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	80.2%	65.5%	88.1%	62.6%	78.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	83.7%	65.5%	88.1%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	83.7%	65.5%	88.1%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	83.7%	65.5%	88.1%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	83.7%	65.5%	88.1%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	83.7%	65.5%	88.1%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	83.7%	65.5%	87.0%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	83.7%	65.5%	87.0%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	83.7%	65.5%	87.0%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	81.4%	65.5%	87.0%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	81.4%	65.5%	87.0%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	81.4%	65.5%	87.0%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00	81.4%	65.5%	87.0%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	81.4%	65.5%	91.0%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	81.4%	65.5%	91.0%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	81.4%	65.5%	91.0%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	81.4%	65.5%	91.0%	49.2%	76.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	85.3%	65.5%	91.0%	47.3%	67.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	85.3%	65.5%	91.0%	47.3%	67.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	85.3%	65.5%	91.0%	47.3%	67.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	85.3%	65.5%	91.0%	47.3%	67.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	85.3%	65.5%	91.0%	47.3%	67.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	85.3%	50.0%	89.4%	47.3%	67.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	85.3%	50.0%	89.4%	47.3%	67.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	85.3%	50.0%	89.4%	47.3%	67.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	82.6%	50.0%	89.4%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	82.6%	50.0%	89.4%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	82.6%	38.8%	89.4%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	82.6%	38.8%	89.4%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	82.6%	38.8%	88.8%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	82.6%	38.8%	88.8%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	82.6%	38.8%	88.8%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	82.6%	38.8%	88.8%	47.3%	67.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	88.8%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	88.8%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	88.8%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	88.8%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	87.6%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	87.6%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	87.6%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	87.6%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	87.6%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	87.6%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	87.6%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:28+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	87.6%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	89.9%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	89.9%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	79.4%	38.8%	89.9%	42.9%	53.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00	79.2%	38.8%	89.9%	47.1%	45.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	79.2%	38.8%	89.9%	47.1%	45.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	79.2%	38.8%	89.9%	47.1%	45.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	79.2%	38.8%	89.9%	47.1%	45.5%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	79.2%	38.8%	89.9%	47.1%	45.5%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	79.2%	37.4%	84.1%	47.1%	45.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	79.2%	37.4%	84.1%	47.1%	45.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	84%	77.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	79%	77.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	74.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	46%	74.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	73.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗