KATL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

62%

54%

42%

18%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

EPSNO 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.85u · EPS −56.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	39.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	38.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	58.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	48.1%	—	37.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	71.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	53.9%	—	27.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	49.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	3.9%	24.4%	—	36.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	37.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	57.7%	28.6%	10.2%	34.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	36.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	62.3%	41.3%	7.6%	32.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	28.7%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	46.2%	25.8%	33.0%	34.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	51.6%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	52.4%	58.7%	23.6%	37.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	0.9%	60.5%	—	31.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	44.2%	62.3%	19.5%	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	24.6%	57.6%	—	31.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	39.6%	61.3%	20.2%	30.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	37.6%	58.0%	—	30.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	39.1%	63.6%	11.0%	28.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	39.7%	58.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	42.3%	60.6%	17.7%	34.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	38.2%	58.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	68%	78.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	77.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	54%	77.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	75.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	74.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗