KATL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

62%

54%

42%

18%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

EPSNO 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.85u · EPS −56.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:23:55+00:00	79.5%	26.0%	63.1%	50.0%	71.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	79.5%	26.0%	72.3%	50.0%	71.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	79.5%	26.0%	72.3%	50.0%	71.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	79.5%	26.0%	72.3%	50.0%	71.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	79.5%	26.0%	72.3%	50.0%	71.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	77.7%	26.0%	72.3%	50.0%	77.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	77.7%	26.0%	72.3%	50.0%	77.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	77.7%	26.0%	72.3%	50.0%	77.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	77.7%	26.0%	72.3%	50.0%	77.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	77.7%	22.8%	74.0%	50.0%	77.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	77.7%	22.8%	74.0%	50.0%	77.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	77.7%	22.8%	74.0%	50.0%	77.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	77.7%	22.8%	74.0%	50.0%	77.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	75.9%	22.8%	74.0%	49.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	75.9%	26.1%	74.0%	49.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	75.9%	26.0%	74.0%	49.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:08+00:00	75.9%	26.0%	74.0%	49.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	75.9%	26.0%	65.8%	49.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	75.9%	26.0%	65.8%	49.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	75.9%	26.0%	65.8%	49.4%	77.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	68.5%	26.0%	65.8%	49.4%	67.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	68.5%	26.0%	65.8%	49.4%	67.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	68.5%	26.0%	65.8%	49.4%	67.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	68.5%	26.0%	65.8%	49.4%	67.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	68.5%	26.0%	65.8%	48.8%	67.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	68.5%	26.0%	71.1%	48.8%	67.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	68.5%	26.0%	71.1%	48.8%	67.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	68.5%	26.0%	71.1%	48.8%	67.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	69.8%	26.0%	71.1%	48.8%	67.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	69.8%	26.0%	71.1%	48.8%	67.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	69.8%	26.0%	71.1%	48.8%	67.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	69.8%	26.0%	71.1%	48.8%	67.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	67.9%	36.4%	82.2%	49.3%	68.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	67.9%	36.4%	82.2%	49.3%	68.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	67.9%	36.4%	82.2%	49.3%	68.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	67.9%	36.4%	80.3%	49.3%	68.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	67.9%	36.4%	80.3%	49.3%	68.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	67.9%	36.4%	80.3%	49.3%	68.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	65.7%	36.4%	80.3%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	65.7%	36.4%	80.3%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	65.7%	36.4%	80.3%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	65.7%	36.4%	80.3%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	65.7%	36.4%	80.3%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	65.7%	36.9%	75.2%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	65.7%	36.9%	75.2%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	65.7%	36.9%	75.2%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	64.9%	36.9%	75.2%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	64.9%	36.9%	75.2%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	64.9%	36.9%	75.2%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:45+00:00	64.9%	36.9%	75.2%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	64.9%	36.9%	77.5%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	64.9%	36.9%	77.5%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	64.9%	36.9%	77.5%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	64.9%	36.9%	77.5%	48.6%	62.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	63.6%	36.9%	77.5%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	63.6%	36.9%	77.5%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	63.6%	36.9%	77.5%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	63.6%	36.9%	77.5%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	63.6%	36.9%	77.5%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	63.6%	25.2%	72.2%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	63.6%	25.2%	72.2%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	63.6%	25.2%	72.2%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	63.6%	25.2%	72.2%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	63.6%	25.2%	72.2%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	72.2%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	72.2%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	70.4%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	70.4%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	70.4%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	70.4%	46.8%	54.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	70.4%	42.1%	54.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	70.4%	42.1%	54.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	70.4%	42.1%	54.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	70.4%	42.1%	54.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	68.5%	42.1%	54.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	68.5%	42.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	63.6%	17.8%	68.5%	42.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	62.0%	17.8%	68.5%	42.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	62.0%	17.8%	68.5%	42.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	62.0%	17.8%	68.5%	42.1%	54.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	62.0%	17.8%	68.5%	42.1%	54.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	68%	78.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	77.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	54%	77.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	75.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	25%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	74.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 04:23 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗