KATL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

36%

34%

33%

13%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.4¢Risks 35.45u

EPSNO 64.5¢Risks 64.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.55u · EPS −64.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	42.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	35.8%	—	52.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	20.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	36.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	44.8%	—	29.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	34.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	2.9%	42.6%	—	22.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	31.7%	33.6%	6.3%	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	32.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	15.6%	29.7%	6.2%	17.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	32.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	57%	75.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	71.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	71.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	70.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	69.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261025-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 74°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗