KATL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

36%

34%

33%

13%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 35.4¢Risks 35.45u

EPSNO 64.5¢Risks 64.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.55u · EPS −64.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	27.7%	43.6%	44.9%	16.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	27.7%	43.6%	44.9%	16.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	27.7%	43.6%	44.9%	16.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	27.7%	43.6%	44.9%	16.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	27.7%	43.6%	44.9%	16.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	27.7%	17.3%	37.7%	16.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	27.7%	17.3%	37.7%	16.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	27.7%	17.3%	37.7%	16.8%	25.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	39.0%	17.3%	37.7%	16.8%	25.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	39.0%	17.3%	37.7%	16.8%	25.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:26+00:00	39.0%	13.4%	37.7%	16.8%	25.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:49+00:00	39.0%	13.4%	37.7%	16.8%	25.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	39.0%	13.4%	37.0%	16.8%	25.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	39.0%	13.4%	37.0%	16.8%	25.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	39.0%	13.4%	37.0%	16.8%	25.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	39.0%	13.4%	37.0%	16.8%	25.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	30.7%	13.4%	37.0%	32.6%	57.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	30.7%	13.4%	37.0%	32.6%	57.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	30.7%	13.4%	37.0%	32.6%	57.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	30.7%	13.4%	37.0%	32.6%	57.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	30.7%	13.4%	36.2%	32.6%	57.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	30.7%	13.4%	36.2%	32.6%	57.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	30.7%	13.4%	36.2%	32.6%	57.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	33.8%	13.4%	36.2%	32.6%	57.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	33.8%	13.4%	36.2%	32.6%	57.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	33.8%	13.4%	36.2%	32.6%	57.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	33.8%	13.4%	36.2%	32.6%	57.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	57%	75.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	71.7°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	71.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	70.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	69.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261025-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 74°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗