KATL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

23%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 11.8¢Risks 11.85u

EPSNO 88.1¢Risks 88.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +88.15u · EPS −88.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	4.9%	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	16.9%	12.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	25.9%	12.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	15.2%	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	0.6%	14.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	5.0%	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	11.4%	10.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	6.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	24%	75.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	23%	75.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	21%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	71.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	4%	62.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	70.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗