WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KATL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
24%
AIFS
23%
HRES
12%
ICON
4%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 11.8¢Risks 11.85u
VS
EPSNO 88.1¢Risks 88.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +88.15u · EPS −88.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00AIFS Single: 23.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00IFS HRES: 11.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:4910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:0023.3%1.2%28.0%11.9%4.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0023.3%1.2%28.0%11.9%4.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0023.3%1.2%28.0%11.9%4.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:0023.3%1.2%28.0%11.9%4.1%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:0023.3%1.2%28.0%11.9%4.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:0023.3%0.2%23.5%11.9%4.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:0023.3%0.2%23.5%11.9%4.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 224%75.8°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single23%75.3°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend21%76.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES12%71.9°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON4%62.1°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%70.2°F3.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261026-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗