KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

51%

49%

28%

26%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.5¢Risks 57.50u

WN2NO 42.5¢Risks 42.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.50u · WN2 −42.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	63.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	0.5%	—	—	89.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	8.8%	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	3.8%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	7.0%	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	27.5%	33.6%	18.0%	—	75.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	93.8%	76.8%	60.8%	—	90.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	96.5%	90.7%	54.6%	—	82.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	78.8%	96.2%	38.2%	—	76.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	79.3%	93.7%	36.1%	—	63.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	38.2%	90.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	45.6%	77.9%	32.2%	—	47.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	57.1%	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	50.9%	47.2%	23.7%	—	33.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	46.2%	53.8%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	39.4%	44.2%	28.7%	—	47.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	25.7%	49.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	25.9%	46.9%	19.0%	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	38.5%	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	40.3%	41.3%	20.6%	—	42.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	38.9%	61.1%	0.0%	—	40.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	39.6%	64.8%	19.9%	—	40.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	39.3%	67.5%	21.6%	—	39.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	42.6%	68.0%	25.6%	19.1%	38.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	34.9%	68.7%	20.9%	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	39.4%	71.6%	18.2%	16.5%	26.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	45.8%	67.5%	27.6%	—	31.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	62.8%	58.6%	23.4%	20.2%	40.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	56.0%	41.0%	17.2%	—	22.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	56.3%	51.6%	20.3%	19.2%	27.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	61.4%	59.8%	28.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	76.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0114
National Blend	75%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0615
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	51%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
AIFS Single	49%	72.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2601
ICON	28%	70.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5256
WeatherNext 2	26%	70.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5520

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗