KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

51%

49%

28%

26%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.5¢Risks 57.50u

WN2NO 42.5¢Risks 42.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.50u · WN2 −42.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:30+00:00	42.6%	98.2%	22.0%	64.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	42.6%	98.2%	22.0%	64.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	42.6%	98.2%	24.7%	64.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	42.6%	98.2%	24.7%	64.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	42.6%	98.2%	24.7%	64.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	42.6%	98.2%	24.7%	64.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	24.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	24.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	24.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	24.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	24.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	24.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	24.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	24.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	24.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	24.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	24.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:51+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	24.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	30.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	30.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	41.7%	98.2%	30.7%	53.6%	32.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	44.1%	98.2%	30.7%	53.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:26+00:00	44.1%	98.2%	30.7%	53.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	44.1%	98.2%	30.7%	53.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	44.1%	98.2%	30.7%	53.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	44.1%	98.2%	30.7%	53.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	44.1%	97.1%	20.1%	53.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	44.1%	97.1%	20.1%	53.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	44.1%	97.1%	20.1%	53.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	45.1%	97.1%	20.1%	62.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	45.1%	96.8%	20.1%	62.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	45.1%	96.8%	20.1%	62.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	45.1%	97.1%	20.1%	62.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	45.1%	97.1%	20.1%	62.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	45.1%	97.1%	23.9%	62.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	45.1%	97.1%	23.9%	62.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	45.1%	97.1%	23.9%	62.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	47.1%	97.1%	23.9%	62.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	47.1%	97.1%	23.9%	62.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	47.1%	97.1%	23.9%	62.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	47.1%	97.1%	23.9%	62.4%	36.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	47.1%	97.1%	23.9%	60.6%	36.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	47.1%	97.1%	23.9%	60.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	47.1%	97.1%	23.9%	60.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	47.1%	97.1%	23.9%	60.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	47.1%	97.1%	23.9%	60.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	47.1%	97.1%	23.9%	60.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	47.1%	97.1%	23.9%	60.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	47.1%	97.1%	23.9%	60.6%	36.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:07+00:00	46.0%	89.3%	28.0%	61.6%	29.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	46.0%	89.3%	28.0%	61.6%	29.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	46.0%	89.3%	22.5%	61.6%	29.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	46.0%	89.3%	22.5%	61.6%	29.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	46.0%	89.3%	22.5%	61.6%	29.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	46.0%	89.3%	22.5%	61.6%	29.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	45.0%	89.3%	22.5%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	45.0%	89.3%	22.5%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	45.0%	89.3%	22.5%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	45.0%	89.3%	22.5%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	45.0%	89.3%	25.7%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	45.0%	89.3%	25.7%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	45.0%	89.3%	25.7%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	45.0%	89.3%	25.7%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	49.0%	89.3%	25.7%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	49.0%	89.3%	25.7%	51.1%	27.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	49.0%	89.3%	25.7%	51.1%	27.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	76.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0114
National Blend	75%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0615
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	51%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2391
AIFS Single	49%	72.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2601
ICON	28%	70.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5256
WeatherNext 2	26%	70.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5520

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗