KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

45%

40%

26%

18%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

ICONNO 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.40u · ICON −59.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	16.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	1.4%	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	0.1%	72.4%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	96.7%	88.5%	0.3%	—	67.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	86.5%	17.5%	66.3%	—	74.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	91.0%	49.2%	35.8%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	57.1%	72.6%	19.5%	—	46.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	31.5%	58.3%	14.8%	—	31.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	20.8%	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	42.2%	56.1%	14.6%	—	43.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	38.5%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	43.6%	30.6%	13.4%	—	37.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	36.1%	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	38.5%	40.4%	15.9%	—	31.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	40.1%	57.0%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	44.9%	64.1%	26.8%	—	31.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	37.5%	41.6%	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	45.6%	15.5%	26.4%	0.0%	30.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	33.6%	35.7%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	19.1%	37.4%	25.1%	9.0%	17.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	17.5%	40.5%	24.4%	—	16.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	22.7%	27.6%	26.6%	—	24.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	39.8%	26.9%	17.4%	—	20.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	25.1%	35.6%	26.2%	26.2%	19.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	50.0%	54.2%	37.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	47.1%	23.4%	34.5%	30.5%	22.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	50.0%	22.4%	27.2%	—	16.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	40.6%	37.6%	25.0%	15.2%	11.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	43.4%	54.9%	28.1%	—	28.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	64%	78.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1325
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.1936
AIFS Single	45%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.3025
IFS HRES	40%	76.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.3552
WeatherNext 2	26%	75.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.5520
ICON	18%	74.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.6790

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗