KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

45%

40%

26%

18%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

ICONNO 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.40u · ICON −59.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:31+00:00	48.3%	95.1%	19.5%	60.3%	56.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	48.3%	95.1%	19.5%	60.3%	56.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	48.3%	95.1%	23.4%	60.3%	56.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	48.3%	95.1%	23.4%	60.3%	56.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	48.3%	95.1%	23.4%	60.3%	56.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	48.3%	95.1%	23.4%	60.3%	56.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	43.1%	95.1%	23.4%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	43.1%	95.1%	23.4%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	43.1%	95.1%	23.4%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	43.1%	95.1%	23.4%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	43.1%	95.1%	28.6%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	43.1%	95.1%	28.6%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	43.1%	95.1%	28.6%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	44.8%	95.1%	28.6%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	44.8%	95.1%	28.6%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	44.8%	95.1%	28.6%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	44.8%	95.1%	28.6%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-16T04:24:51+00:00	44.8%	95.1%	28.6%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	44.8%	95.1%	26.8%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	44.8%	95.1%	26.8%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	44.8%	95.1%	26.8%	50.8%	58.2%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	46.3%	95.1%	26.8%	50.8%	45.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:26+00:00	46.3%	95.1%	26.8%	50.8%	45.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	46.3%	95.1%	26.8%	50.8%	45.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	46.3%	95.1%	26.8%	50.8%	45.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	46.3%	95.1%	26.8%	50.8%	45.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	46.3%	86.5%	16.4%	50.8%	45.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	46.3%	86.5%	16.4%	50.8%	45.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	46.3%	86.5%	16.4%	50.8%	45.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	50.0%	86.5%	16.4%	56.2%	45.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	50.0%	86.4%	16.4%	56.2%	45.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	50.9%	86.4%	28.6%	41.1%	52.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	50.9%	86.4%	29.7%	41.1%	52.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	50.9%	86.4%	29.7%	41.1%	52.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	50.9%	86.4%	29.7%	41.1%	52.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:52+00:00	50.0%	86.4%	29.7%	52.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	50.0%	86.4%	29.7%	52.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	50.0%	86.4%	29.7%	52.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	50.0%	86.4%	29.7%	52.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	50.0%	86.4%	29.7%	52.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	50.0%	85.3%	24.9%	52.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	50.0%	85.3%	24.9%	52.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	50.0%	85.3%	24.9%	52.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	39.3%	85.3%	24.9%	52.9%	42.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	39.3%	84.9%	24.9%	52.9%	42.2%
2026-10-18T04:14:28+00:00	34.7%	74.9%	16.7%	28.7%	17.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	34.7%	74.9%	32.6%	28.7%	17.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	34.7%	74.9%	32.6%	28.7%	17.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	34.7%	74.9%	32.6%	28.7%	17.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	34.7%	74.9%	32.6%	28.7%	17.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00	41.0%	74.9%	32.6%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	41.0%	74.9%	32.6%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	41.0%	74.9%	32.6%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	41.0%	74.9%	32.6%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	41.0%	72.9%	26.8%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	41.0%	72.9%	26.8%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	41.0%	72.9%	26.8%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	41.0%	72.9%	26.8%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	40.0%	72.6%	26.8%	48.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	40.0%	72.6%	26.8%	48.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	40.0%	63.6%	26.8%	48.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	40.0%	63.6%	26.8%	48.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	40.0%	63.6%	23.5%	48.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	40.0%	63.6%	23.5%	48.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	40.0%	63.6%	23.5%	48.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	42.9%	63.6%	23.5%	40.4%	17.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	42.9%	63.6%	23.5%	40.4%	17.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	42.9%	63.6%	23.5%	40.4%	17.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	42.9%	63.6%	23.5%	40.4%	17.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	42.9%	63.6%	23.5%	40.4%	17.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	42.9%	63.6%	25.7%	40.4%	17.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	42.9%	63.6%	25.7%	40.4%	17.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	42.9%	63.6%	25.7%	40.4%	17.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	45.0%	63.6%	25.7%	40.4%	17.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	45.0%	63.6%	25.7%	40.4%	17.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	45.0%	63.6%	25.7%	40.4%	17.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	45.0%	63.6%	25.7%	40.4%	17.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	64%	78.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1325
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.1901
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.1936
AIFS Single	45%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.3025
IFS HRES	40%	76.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.3552
WeatherNext 2	26%	75.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.5520
ICON	18%	74.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.6790

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗