KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

30%

26%

18%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 27.9¢Risks 27.85u

WN2NO 72.2¢Risks 72.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.15u · WN2 −72.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	46.6%	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	87.0%	68.9%	0.0%	—	39.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	64.3%	4.8%	37.8%	—	46.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	71.7%	21.6%	12.9%	—	37.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	26.8%	42.1%	4.9%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	9.3%	26.5%	3.0%	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	4.7%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	14.1%	23.4%	2.7%	—	15.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	11.6%	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	13.9%	7.6%	2.1%	—	10.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	9.6%	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	10.2%	11.1%	2.4%	—	7.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	10.5%	20.4%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	12.3%	25.1%	4.9%	—	6.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	8.3%	10.1%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	11.4%	1.7%	4.2%	0.0%	5.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	6.0%	6.7%	0.0%	—	2.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.1%	6.8%	3.3%	0.6%	1.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.6%	7.4%	2.9%	—	1.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.3%	3.3%	3.0%	—	2.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	6.0%	2.8%	1.3%	—	1.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.2%	4.3%	2.4%	2.4%	1.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	8.1%	9.8%	4.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.3%	1.5%	3.2%	2.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	81.7°F	2.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	78.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	79.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	26%	78.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	77.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	74.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗