KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

30%

26%

18%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 27.9¢Risks 27.85u

WN2NO 72.2¢Risks 72.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +72.15u · WN2 −72.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:27+00:00	13.4%	56.0%	4.4%	28.4%	26.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:02+00:00	13.4%	56.0%	4.4%	28.4%	26.7%
2026-10-15T05:33:21+00:00	13.4%	56.0%	6.9%	28.4%	26.7%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	13.4%	56.0%	6.9%	28.4%	26.7%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	13.4%	56.0%	6.9%	28.4%	26.7%
2026-10-15T07:50:09+00:00	5.2%	56.0%	6.9%	29.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	5.2%	56.0%	6.9%	29.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	5.2%	56.0%	6.9%	29.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	5.2%	56.0%	6.9%	29.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	5.2%	56.0%	2.6%	29.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	5.2%	56.0%	2.6%	29.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	5.2%	53.1%	2.6%	29.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:32+00:00	5.2%	53.1%	2.6%	29.5%	25.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	18.0%	53.1%	2.6%	29.5%	25.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	18.0%	53.1%	2.6%	29.5%	25.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	81.7°F	2.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	78.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	79.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	26%	78.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	77.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	74.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 82°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗