KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

45%

24%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.5¢Risks 33.50u

WN2NO 66.5¢Risks 66.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.50u · WN2 −66.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.0%	22.3%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	66.4%	41.6%	0.0%	—	16.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	35.7%	0.8%	14.8%	—	20.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	42.4%	6.0%	2.9%	—	13.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	7.8%	15.9%	0.7%	—	4.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	7.1%	0.3%	—	1.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.6%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.5%	5.4%	0.2%	—	2.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.8%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.2%	0.9%	0.1%	—	1.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	1.4%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	3.4%	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.4%	4.4%	0.4%	—	0.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	1.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	64%	88.1°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	85.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	84.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	82.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	75.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	76.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗