KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST21%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

45%

24%

Consensus

21%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.5¢Risks 33.50u

WN2NO 66.5¢Risks 66.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.50u · WN2 −66.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:15+00:00	1.3%	46.0%	0.4%	14.2%	75.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	1.3%	46.0%	2.5%	14.2%	75.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	1.3%	46.0%	2.5%	14.2%	75.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	1.3%	46.0%	2.5%	14.2%	75.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	1.3%	46.0%	2.5%	14.2%	75.7%
2026-10-13T08:04:00+00:00	1.8%	46.0%	2.5%	47.6%	58.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	1.8%	46.0%	2.5%	47.6%	58.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	1.8%	46.0%	2.5%	47.6%	58.4%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	1.8%	46.0%	2.5%	47.6%	58.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	1.8%	24.6%	1.9%	47.6%	58.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	1.8%	24.6%	1.9%	47.6%	58.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	1.8%	24.6%	1.9%	47.6%	58.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	1.8%	24.6%	1.9%	47.6%	58.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	5.6%	24.6%	1.9%	47.6%	59.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	5.6%	24.6%	1.9%	47.6%	59.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:48+00:00	5.6%	24.6%	1.9%	47.6%	59.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	5.6%	24.6%	1.9%	47.6%	59.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	5.6%	24.6%	2.7%	47.6%	59.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	5.6%	24.6%	2.7%	47.6%	59.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	5.6%	24.6%	2.7%	47.6%	59.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	1.6%	24.6%	2.7%	47.6%	64.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:38+00:00	1.6%	24.6%	2.7%	47.6%	64.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	1.6%	24.6%	2.7%	47.6%	64.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	1.6%	24.6%	2.7%	47.6%	64.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	1.6%	24.6%	2.7%	45.1%	64.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	1.6%	24.1%	2.6%	45.1%	64.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	1.6%	24.1%	2.6%	45.1%	64.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	1.6%	24.1%	2.6%	45.1%	64.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	2.8%	24.1%	2.6%	45.1%	64.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	2.8%	24.1%	2.6%	45.1%	64.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	64%	88.1°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	85.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	45%	84.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	82.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	75.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	76.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗