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KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
7%
EPS
5%
HRES
4%
WN2
<1%
AIFS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 3.8¢Risks 0.94u
VS
AIFSNO 96.2¢Risks 24.06u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +24.06u · AIFS −24.06u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 12:0010-12 06:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:001.8%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:006.6%————5.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:003.8%————4.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:002.0%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:003.3%————4.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.9%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:007.7%————6.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:002.5%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:002.6%————3.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0015.2%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:001.3%————3.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:003.8%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0030.1%————4.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:002.1%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.2%————3.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.1%————5.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.1%————14.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.2%————12.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:002.9%—0.0%——11.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:002.1%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.1%————9.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:003.0%—0.2%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:001.6%—0.0%——6.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:001.5%—0.1%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.0%7.5%——12.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.1%—5.0%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.0%38.9%18.0%0.0%—4.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.0%—6.1%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.0%13.6%0.1%3.8%—5.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.1%—17.9%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.0%16.9%1.0%0.4%—3.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%1.3%3.6%0.1%—0.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.0%—2.6%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%1.1%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%1.3%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.7%0.0%—0.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.1%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.2%——0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.3%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend20%84.0°F6.6°F2026-10-14 00:000.0412
NWS forecast14%84.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 02:000.0204
ICON7%81.0°F5.9°F2026-10-14 00:000.0055
IFS Ensemble5%82.6°F4.1°F2026-10-13 00:000.0022
IFS HRES4%79.3°F5.8°F2026-10-14 00:000.0015
WeatherNext 2<1%76.6°F4.6°F2026-10-13 12:000.0000
AIFS Single<1%74.7°F5.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗