KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 3.8¢Risks 0.94u

AIFSNO 96.2¢Risks 24.06u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +24.06u · AIFS −24.06u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T10:34:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:49+00:00	2.0%	14.0%	1.9%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	2.0%	14.0%	1.9%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	2.0%	14.0%	1.9%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	2.0%	14.0%	1.9%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	2.0%	14.0%	1.9%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T11:35:38+00:00	2.0%	14.0%	0.6%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	2.0%	21.2%	0.6%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	2.0%	21.2%	0.6%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	0.6%	21.2%	0.6%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	0.6%	21.2%	0.7%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T15:27:39+00:00	0.6%	21.2%	0.7%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	0.6%	22.2%	0.7%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	0.6%	22.2%	0.3%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	0.6%	22.2%	0.3%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	0.6%	22.2%	0.3%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	0.6%	22.2%	0.3%	52.5%	0.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	0.0%	22.2%	0.3%	4.4%	61.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	0.0%	22.2%	0.3%	4.4%	61.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	0.0%	22.2%	0.3%	4.4%	61.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	0.0%	22.2%	0.3%	4.4%	61.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	0.0%	4.4%	61.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	0.0%	4.4%	61.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	0.0%	4.4%	61.5%
2026-10-13T04:16:15+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	0.0%	4.4%	61.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	0.3%	4.4%	61.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	0.3%	4.4%	61.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	0.3%	4.4%	61.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:19+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	0.3%	4.4%	61.5%
2026-10-13T08:04:00+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	0.3%	25.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	0.3%	25.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	0.3%	25.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	0.2%	22.2%	0.3%	25.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	0.2%	5.1%	0.2%	25.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	0.2%	5.1%	0.2%	25.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	0.2%	5.1%	0.2%	25.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	0.2%	5.1%	0.2%	25.1%	36.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	1.0%	5.1%	0.2%	25.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	1.0%	5.1%	0.2%	25.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:48+00:00	1.0%	5.1%	0.2%	25.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	1.0%	5.1%	0.2%	25.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	1.0%	5.1%	0.3%	25.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	1.0%	5.1%	0.3%	25.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	1.0%	5.1%	0.3%	25.1%	36.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	0.2%	5.1%	0.3%	25.1%	42.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:38+00:00	0.2%	5.1%	0.3%	25.1%	42.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	0.2%	5.1%	0.3%	25.1%	42.1%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	0.2%	5.1%	0.3%	25.1%	42.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	0.2%	5.1%	0.3%	23.2%	42.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	0.2%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	42.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	0.2%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	0.2%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:11+00:00	0.4%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	0.4%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	0.4%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:36+00:00	0.4%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	0.4%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	0.4%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T06:01:01+00:00	0.4%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	0.4%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	0.1%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	7.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	0.1%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	7.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:48+00:00	0.1%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	7.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	0.1%	4.7%	0.2%	23.2%	7.4%
2026-10-14T10:34:06+00:00	0.1%	4.7%	0.2%	3.9%	7.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	20%	84.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0412
NWS forecast	14%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0204
ICON	7%	81.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0055
IFS Ensemble	5%	82.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0022
IFS HRES	4%	79.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0015
WeatherNext 2	<1%	76.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	<1%	74.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗