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KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≤ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
22%
HRES
8%
AIFS
8%
WN2
8%
EPS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 12.0¢Risks 12.05u
VS
EPSNO 87.9¢Risks 87.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.95u · EPS −87.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 99.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.8% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.6% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 87.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 79.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 68.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.0% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.9% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 52.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 88.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 62.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.3% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 97.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 21.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 31.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 14.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 19.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 100.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 72.2% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 50.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 88.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 60.5% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 43.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 53.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 95.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 21.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 36.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 41.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 39.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 32.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 14.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 13.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 10.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 15.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 100.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 34.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 8.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 4.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 79.2% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.8% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 12:0010-12 06:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:0099.1%————79.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0038.0%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0018.6%————22.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0091.9%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0026.5%————24.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0036.4%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:0028.8%————23.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0049.5%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0016.5%————18.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0033.0%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0032.5%————29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:008.5%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0042.6%————27.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0026.5%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:003.0%————25.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0035.4%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0065.6%————27.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0087.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0079.2%————18.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0082.2%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0068.6%————6.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0053.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0056.4%————6.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0053.0%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0020.1%—100.0%——6.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0022.9%—72.2%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0029.6%————6.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0015.6%—50.0%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0021.7%—88.6%——7.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0020.8%—60.5%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0034.8%97.6%5.4%——2.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0052.1%—7.1%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0088.8%0.2%1.2%95.3%—6.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0069.3%—4.5%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0059.4%1.4%43.4%6.4%—4.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0037.5%—0.7%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0062.0%0.6%12.9%21.6%—5.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0050.0%—53.1%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0055.6%8.4%3.6%36.7%—13.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0043.5%—4.1%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0055.8%21.9%7.1%41.7%—21.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0043.2%31.9%5.1%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0062.1%13.1%7.0%39.6%—12.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0031.0%14.5%6.3%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0034.7%11.0%19.0%39.1%—14.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0033.5%14.3%13.2%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0031.3%12.1%11.1%32.1%—16.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0027.4%10.5%4.7%——15.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0024.3%7.8%2.8%17.6%—14.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0025.3%10.1%8.3%——19.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0024.7%6.2%26.4%15.5%100.0%13.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0035.7%10.2%9.2%100.0%—18.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0051.2%19.1%7.6%14.0%34.1%20.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0040.5%19.1%5.8%13.2%—19.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0032.0%13.0%10.0%10.6%—11.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0032.5%4.6%9.2%15.8%—12.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0028.4%8.9%5.0%8.4%8.4%12.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0025.3%1.8%1.4%3.7%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0031.8%1.8%7.3%3.7%4.7%7.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0032.5%1.1%6.5%4.8%—9.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0029.0%1.6%2.0%4.4%8.9%11.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0030.9%1.0%0.4%2.8%—2.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON22%74.2°F3.5°F2026-10-18 12:000.0497
IFS HRES8%76.6°F3.7°F2026-10-18 12:000.0072
AIFS Single8%77.0°F3.9°F2026-10-18 18:000.0066
WeatherNext 28%75.6°F2.9°F2026-10-18 12:000.0062
National Blend2%78.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 06:000.0006
IFS Ensemble2%78.7°F3.4°F2026-10-18 00:000.0003
NWS forecast2%78.0°F3.1°F2026-10-18 14:000.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Austin stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗