KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≤ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 12.0¢Risks 12.05u

EPSNO 87.9¢Risks 87.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +87.95u · EPS −87.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:09+00:00	29.3%	0.1%	17.1%	7.2%	8.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	29.3%	0.1%	17.1%	7.2%	8.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	29.3%	0.1%	17.1%	7.2%	8.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	29.3%	0.1%	17.1%	7.2%	8.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	29.3%	0.1%	22.6%	7.2%	8.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	29.3%	0.1%	22.6%	7.2%	8.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	9.5%	0.1%	21.2%	11.1%	8.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	9.5%	0.1%	21.2%	11.1%	8.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	9.5%	0.1%	21.2%	11.1%	8.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	8.0%	0.1%	21.2%	6.7%	8.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	8.0%	0.1%	21.2%	6.7%	8.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:40+00:00	8.0%	0.1%	21.2%	6.7%	8.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	8.0%	0.1%	21.2%	6.7%	8.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	8.0%	0.1%	21.2%	6.7%	8.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	8.0%	0.1%	17.1%	6.7%	8.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	8.0%	0.1%	17.1%	6.7%	8.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	8.0%	0.1%	17.1%	6.7%	8.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	7.1%	0.1%	17.1%	6.7%	5.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	7.1%	0.1%	17.1%	6.7%	5.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	7.1%	0.1%	17.1%	6.7%	5.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	7.1%	0.1%	17.1%	6.7%	5.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	7.1%	0.1%	17.1%	13.2%	5.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	7.1%	0.1%	11.2%	13.2%	5.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	7.1%	0.1%	11.2%	13.2%	5.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	7.1%	0.1%	11.2%	13.2%	5.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	7.7%	0.1%	11.2%	13.2%	5.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	7.7%	0.1%	11.2%	13.2%	5.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	7.7%	0.1%	11.2%	13.2%	5.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	7.7%	0.1%	11.2%	13.2%	5.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	7.7%	0.1%	11.2%	13.2%	5.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	7.7%	0.1%	10.6%	13.2%	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	7.7%	0.1%	10.6%	13.2%	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	7.7%	0.1%	10.6%	13.2%	5.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:07+00:00	11.4%	0.8%	10.4%	6.2%	6.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	11.4%	0.8%	10.4%	6.2%	6.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	11.4%	0.8%	13.6%	6.2%	6.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	11.4%	0.8%	13.6%	6.2%	6.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	11.4%	0.8%	13.6%	6.2%	6.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	11.4%	0.8%	13.6%	6.2%	6.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	18.8%	0.8%	13.6%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	18.8%	0.8%	13.6%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	18.8%	0.8%	13.6%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	18.8%	0.8%	13.6%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	18.8%	0.8%	16.7%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	18.8%	0.8%	16.7%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	18.8%	0.8%	16.7%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	18.8%	0.8%	16.7%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	16.7%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	16.7%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	16.7%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:28+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	16.7%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	6.9%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	6.9%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	6.9%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	13.9%	0.8%	6.9%	18.3%	22.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	6.9%	5.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	6.9%	5.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	6.9%	5.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	9.8%	0.8%	6.9%	5.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	9.8%	0.9%	7.4%	5.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	9.8%	0.9%	7.4%	5.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	9.8%	0.9%	7.4%	5.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	9.8%	0.9%	7.4%	5.6%	25.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	10.2%	1.0%	7.4%	5.6%	25.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	10.2%	1.0%	7.4%	5.6%	25.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	10.2%	1.8%	7.4%	5.6%	25.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	10.2%	1.8%	7.4%	5.6%	25.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	10.2%	1.8%	9.0%	5.6%	25.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	10.2%	1.8%	9.0%	5.6%	25.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	10.2%	1.8%	9.0%	5.6%	25.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	8.9%	1.8%	9.0%	8.5%	22.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	8.9%	1.8%	9.0%	8.5%	22.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	8.9%	1.8%	9.0%	8.5%	22.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	8.9%	1.8%	9.0%	8.5%	22.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	8.9%	1.8%	9.0%	8.5%	22.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	8.9%	1.8%	7.9%	8.5%	22.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	8.9%	1.8%	7.9%	8.5%	22.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	8.9%	1.8%	7.9%	8.5%	22.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	8.1%	1.8%	7.9%	8.5%	22.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	8.1%	1.8%	7.9%	8.5%	22.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	8.1%	1.8%	7.9%	8.5%	22.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	8.1%	1.8%	7.9%	8.5%	22.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	22%	74.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0497
IFS HRES	8%	76.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0072
AIFS Single	8%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.0066
WeatherNext 2	8%	75.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0062
National Blend	2%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.0006
IFS Ensemble	2%	78.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0003
NWS forecast	2%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 71°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-LE71
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Austin stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗