KAUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

65%

52%

51%

34%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.5¢Risks 53.55u

WN2NO 46.5¢Risks 46.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.45u · WN2 −46.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	43.5%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	7.0%	71.2%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.1%	46.5%	55.6%	0.2%	—	41.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	33.7%	62.3%	22.1%	—	54.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	27.7%	57.6%	19.5%	—	51.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	34.5%	33.0%	39.7%	—	44.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	44.2%	50.0%	40.1%	—	49.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	21.4%	57.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	44.8%	50.0%	29.9%	—	49.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	45.5%	62.4%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	44.5%	62.7%	25.1%	—	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	47.2%	60.3%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	45.1%	61.5%	24.0%	—	45.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	42.0%	58.0%	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	41.8%	54.1%	19.7%	—	39.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	51.1%	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	54.4%	54.4%	18.3%	—	46.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.9%	54.5%	52.2%	0.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	54.6%	52.3%	21.5%	0.0%	30.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	58.4%	48.8%	19.9%	—	32.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	66.9%	41.3%	26.6%	20.8%	43.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	12.8%	34.9%	—	30.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	85.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	84.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	52%	83.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	83.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	82.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗