KAUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

65%

52%

51%

34%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.5¢Risks 53.55u

WN2NO 46.5¢Risks 46.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.45u · WN2 −46.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:05:11+00:00	45.1%	74.8%	21.9%	51.9%	51.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	45.1%	74.8%	21.9%	51.9%	51.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00	45.1%	74.8%	44.9%	51.9%	51.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	45.1%	74.8%	44.9%	51.9%	51.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	45.1%	74.8%	44.9%	51.9%	51.1%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	51.0%	74.8%	44.9%	51.9%	52.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	51.0%	74.8%	44.9%	51.9%	52.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	51.0%	74.8%	44.9%	51.9%	52.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	51.0%	74.8%	44.9%	51.9%	52.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00	51.0%	73.1%	34.0%	64.7%	52.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	51.0%	73.1%	34.0%	64.7%	52.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	51.0%	73.1%	34.0%	64.7%	52.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	51.0%	73.1%	34.0%	64.7%	52.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	51.0%	73.1%	34.0%	64.7%	52.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	51.0%	73.1%	34.0%	64.7%	52.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	75%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	73%	85.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	84.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	52%	83.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	83.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	82.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261021-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 84°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗