KAUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

30%

27%

16%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.2¢Risks 21.20u

WN2NO 78.8¢Risks 78.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.80u · WN2 −78.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	22.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	55.0%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	53.9%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.0%	40.6%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	17.5%	27.5%	0.1%	—	35.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	58.0%	17.0%	18.9%	—	33.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	40.2%	25.8%	21.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	36.7%	28.1%	16.9%	—	34.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	30.4%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	31.5%	33.8%	10.1%	—	23.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	11.5%	35.0%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	24.1%	39.6%	10.1%	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	23.5%	34.2%	—	—	22.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	24.4%	31.4%	7.9%	—	17.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	18.4%	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	27.1%	31.3%	6.2%	—	21.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	15.2%	21.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	19.7%	17.6%	6.4%	—	11.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	22.8%	15.6%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	29.2%	21.3%	2.9%	5.9%	16.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	47.8%	0.0%	—	10.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	35%	86.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	33%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	85.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	85.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	85.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	83.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	83.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261022-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗