KAUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

30%

27%

16%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 21.2¢Risks 21.20u

WN2NO 78.8¢Risks 78.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +78.80u · WN2 −78.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:12+00:00	30.9%	56.2%	30.9%	55.6%	1.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	30.9%	56.2%	30.9%	55.6%	1.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	30.9%	56.2%	30.9%	55.6%	1.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	30.9%	56.2%	30.9%	55.6%	1.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:17+00:00	19.2%	37.4%	8.6%	37.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	19.2%	37.4%	17.4%	37.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	19.2%	37.4%	17.4%	37.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00	19.2%	37.4%	17.4%	37.4%	39.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00	19.3%	37.4%	17.4%	37.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	19.3%	37.4%	17.4%	37.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	19.3%	37.4%	17.4%	37.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	19.3%	37.4%	17.4%	37.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00	19.3%	37.4%	17.4%	37.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00	19.3%	38.8%	7.3%	37.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	19.3%	38.8%	7.3%	37.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	19.3%	38.8%	7.3%	37.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	12.6%	38.8%	7.3%	37.7%	32.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	12.5%	38.8%	7.2%	37.7%	32.6%
2026-10-20T04:05:13+00:00	14.0%	37.5%	5.1%	24.4%	25.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	14.0%	37.5%	5.1%	24.4%	25.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00	14.0%	37.5%	12.3%	24.4%	25.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	14.0%	37.5%	12.3%	24.4%	25.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	14.0%	37.5%	12.3%	24.4%	25.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	16.1%	37.5%	12.3%	24.4%	25.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	16.1%	37.5%	12.3%	24.4%	25.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	16.1%	37.5%	12.3%	24.4%	25.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	16.1%	37.5%	12.3%	24.4%	25.9%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00	16.1%	34.9%	7.8%	30.4%	25.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	16.1%	34.9%	7.8%	30.4%	25.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	16.1%	34.9%	7.8%	30.4%	25.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	16.1%	34.9%	7.8%	30.4%	25.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	16.1%	34.7%	7.7%	30.4%	26.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	35%	86.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	33%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	85.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	85.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	85.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	16%	83.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	83.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261022-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗