KAUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

26%

26%

11%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.1¢Risks 20.10u

WN2NO 79.9¢Risks 79.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.90u · WN2 −79.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	34.0%	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	30.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	35.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.0%	12.4%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	46.5%	34.9%	0.1%	—	26.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	41.3%	24.9%	20.4%	—	28.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	35.8%	23.9%	12.5%	—	20.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	25.9%	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	33.7%	25.5%	17.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	23.7%	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	27.2%	17.8%	14.3%	—	14.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	13.7%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	33.0%	19.0%	16.1%	—	17.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	27.9%	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	21.6%	12.9%	12.4%	—	10.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	24.6%	10.4%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	28.7%	11.6%	12.1%	5.1%	13.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	16.4%	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	28.5%	15.7%	10.3%	—	6.7%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	28.8%	11.1%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	31.1%	—	10.9%	—	11.4%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	28.6%	8.3%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	89.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	36%	86.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	85.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	86.9°F	2.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	82.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	81.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261023-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 89°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗