KAUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

36%

26%

26%

11%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 20.1¢Risks 20.10u

WN2NO 79.9¢Risks 79.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +79.90u · WN2 −79.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	15.9%	55.3%	13.5%	42.0%	5.5%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	16.1%	55.3%	13.6%	42.0%	5.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00	16.1%	55.3%	13.6%	42.0%	5.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	16.1%	55.3%	13.6%	42.0%	5.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	16.1%	55.3%	13.6%	42.0%	5.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	16.1%	55.3%	14.0%	42.0%	5.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	16.1%	55.3%	14.0%	42.0%	5.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	16.1%	55.3%	14.0%	42.0%	5.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	16.5%	55.3%	14.0%	42.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	16.5%	55.3%	14.0%	42.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	16.5%	55.3%	14.0%	42.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	16.5%	55.3%	14.0%	42.0%	66.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	16.5%	55.3%	14.0%	40.8%	66.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	16.5%	55.3%	17.3%	40.8%	66.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	16.5%	55.3%	17.3%	40.8%	66.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	16.5%	55.3%	17.3%	40.8%	66.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	16.9%	55.3%	17.3%	40.8%	66.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	16.9%	55.3%	17.3%	40.8%	66.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	16.9%	55.3%	17.3%	40.8%	66.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	16.9%	55.3%	17.3%	40.8%	66.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	16.9%	55.3%	17.3%	40.8%	66.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	16.9%	55.3%	16.3%	40.8%	66.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	16.9%	55.3%	16.3%	40.8%	66.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	16.9%	55.3%	16.3%	40.8%	66.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:53+00:00	21.3%	55.3%	16.3%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	21.3%	55.3%	16.3%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	21.3%	55.3%	16.3%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	21.3%	55.3%	16.3%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	21.3%	55.3%	16.3%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	21.3%	57.5%	16.8%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	21.3%	57.5%	16.8%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	21.3%	57.5%	16.8%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	17.3%	57.5%	16.8%	42.9%	63.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	17.3%	57.3%	16.8%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:07+00:00	17.3%	45.9%	16.8%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	17.3%	45.9%	16.8%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	17.3%	45.9%	12.0%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	17.3%	45.9%	12.0%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	17.3%	45.9%	12.0%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	17.3%	45.9%	12.0%	42.8%	63.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	18.3%	45.9%	12.0%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	18.3%	45.9%	12.0%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	18.3%	45.9%	12.0%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	18.3%	45.9%	12.0%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	18.3%	45.9%	11.2%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	18.3%	45.9%	11.2%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	18.3%	45.9%	11.2%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	18.3%	45.9%	11.2%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	17.8%	45.9%	11.2%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	17.8%	45.9%	11.2%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	17.8%	45.9%	11.2%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-18T04:14:28+00:00	17.8%	45.9%	11.2%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	17.8%	45.9%	16.3%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	17.8%	45.9%	16.3%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	17.8%	45.9%	16.3%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	17.8%	45.9%	16.3%	36.4%	59.9%
2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00	16.6%	45.9%	16.3%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	16.6%	45.9%	16.3%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	16.6%	45.9%	16.3%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	16.6%	45.9%	16.3%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	16.6%	34.5%	7.9%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	16.6%	34.5%	7.9%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	16.6%	34.5%	7.9%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	16.6%	34.5%	7.9%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	17.6%	34.5%	7.9%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	17.6%	34.5%	7.9%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	17.6%	26.9%	7.9%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	17.6%	26.9%	7.9%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	17.6%	26.9%	8.7%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	17.6%	26.9%	8.7%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	17.6%	26.9%	8.7%	30.8%	53.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	16.1%	26.9%	8.7%	29.0%	48.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	16.1%	26.9%	8.7%	29.0%	48.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	16.1%	26.9%	8.7%	29.0%	48.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	16.1%	26.9%	8.7%	29.0%	48.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	16.1%	26.9%	8.7%	29.0%	48.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	16.1%	26.9%	7.2%	29.0%	48.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	16.1%	26.9%	7.2%	29.0%	48.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	16.1%	26.9%	7.2%	29.0%	48.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	16.6%	26.9%	7.2%	29.0%	48.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	16.6%	26.9%	7.2%	29.0%	48.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	16.6%	26.9%	7.2%	29.0%	48.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	16.6%	26.9%	7.2%	29.0%	48.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	11.1%	26.1%	5.6%	34.5%	47.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	11.1%	26.1%	5.6%	34.5%	47.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	11.1%	26.1%	5.6%	34.5%	47.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	11.1%	26.1%	4.5%	34.5%	47.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	11.1%	26.1%	4.5%	34.5%	47.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	11.1%	26.1%	4.5%	34.5%	47.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	10.7%	26.1%	4.5%	26.1%	36.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	10.7%	26.1%	4.5%	26.1%	36.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	10.7%	26.1%	4.5%	26.1%	36.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	10.7%	26.1%	4.5%	26.1%	36.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	10.7%	26.1%	4.5%	26.1%	36.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	10.7%	26.1%	3.8%	26.1%	36.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	10.7%	26.1%	3.8%	26.1%	36.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	10.7%	26.1%	3.8%	26.1%	36.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	11.1%	26.1%	3.8%	26.1%	36.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	11.1%	26.1%	3.8%	26.1%	36.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	11.1%	26.1%	3.8%	26.1%	36.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	89.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	36%	86.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	85.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	86.9°F	2.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	82.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	81.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261023-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 89°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗