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KAUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
65%
ICON
48%
HRES
35%
AIFS
34%
WN2
30%
Consensus
53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 47.7¢Risks 47.70u
VS
WN2NO 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.30u · WN2 −52.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 30.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00AIFS Single: 30.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 30.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 30.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00AIFS Single: 32.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00AIFS Single: 33.5% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 37.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00IFS HRES: 34.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00ICON: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00ICON: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 42.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00ICON: 48.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00ICON: 48.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 48.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 48.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 48.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00ICON: 48.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00ICON: 48.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00ICON: 48.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00ICON: 48.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00ICON: 47.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:0030.7%61.9%30.5%37.8%42.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0030.7%61.9%30.5%37.8%42.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0030.7%61.9%30.5%37.8%42.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:0030.7%61.9%30.5%37.8%42.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:0032.2%61.9%30.5%34.7%48.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0032.2%61.9%30.5%34.7%48.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0032.2%61.9%30.5%34.7%48.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0032.2%61.9%30.5%34.7%48.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:0032.2%61.9%30.5%34.7%48.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:0032.2%65.0%30.4%34.7%48.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:0032.2%65.0%30.4%34.7%48.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:0032.2%65.0%30.4%34.7%48.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:0033.5%65.0%30.4%34.7%48.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:0033.5%65.0%30.4%34.7%47.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend77%88.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble65%86.7°F3.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%86.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON48%85.1°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES35%82.9°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single34%83.2°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 230%83.1°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗