KAUS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

48%

35%

34%

30%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.7¢Risks 47.70u

WN2NO 52.3¢Risks 52.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.30u · WN2 −52.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	28.2%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	39.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	22.6%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.1%	28.2%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	12.2%	18.9%	0.4%	—	26.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	23.2%	14.0%	16.1%	—	27.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	36.5%	7.0%	22.2%	—	20.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	38.2%	13.6%	11.1%	18.4%	19.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	12.2%	—	—	15.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	77%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	86.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	85.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	82.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	83.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	83.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261025-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗