KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

66%

56%

53%

34%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

ICONNO 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.90u · ICON −33.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.3%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	3.9%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	6.7%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	2.4%	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	61.1%	25.7%	29.8%	—	57.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	51.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	78.0%	78.0%	68.3%	—	65.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	88.6%	78.9%	67.0%	—	61.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	79.4%	87.7%	62.5%	—	57.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	2.9%	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	74.9%	89.5%	44.2%	—	51.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	50.0%	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	45.6%	78.6%	36.3%	—	27.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	50.0%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	33.9%	60.0%	20.3%	—	19.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	41.5%	55.7%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	43.2%	49.0%	26.3%	—	27.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	32.6%	52.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	38.8%	49.0%	23.5%	—	31.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	41.6%	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	37.1%	54.4%	24.7%	—	30.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	37.8%	56.7%	0.0%	—	32.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	34.1%	59.2%	28.9%	—	35.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.4%	38.1%	59.5%	26.3%	—	34.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	32.0%	63.4%	28.7%	27.6%	34.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	25.9%	60.2%	25.9%	—	32.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	30.7%	64.4%	28.4%	21.0%	31.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	48.6%	62.3%	25.3%	—	30.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	54.3%	65.5%	29.3%	34.5%	30.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	53.0%	63.3%	23.6%	—	23.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.0%	51.6%	59.4%	22.6%	27.6%	17.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	58.2%	59.8%	33.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	73.2°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0002
National Blend	76%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0600
AIFS Single	66%	69.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1142
WeatherNext 2	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1901
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1954
IFS HRES	53%	67.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2218
ICON	34%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4409

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗