KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

66%

56%

53%

34%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.1¢Risks 66.10u

ICONNO 33.9¢Risks 33.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.90u · ICON −33.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:05+00:00	65.2%	95.7%	62.6%	46.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	65.2%	95.7%	62.6%	46.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	65.2%	95.7%	67.6%	46.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	65.2%	95.7%	67.6%	46.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	65.2%	95.7%	67.6%	46.8%	49.2%
2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00	66.3%	95.7%	67.6%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	66.3%	95.7%	67.6%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	66.3%	95.7%	67.6%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	66.3%	95.7%	67.6%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	66.3%	95.7%	67.6%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:17+00:00	66.3%	95.7%	66.1%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	66.3%	95.4%	66.1%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:18+00:00	66.3%	95.4%	66.1%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	68.8%	95.3%	66.1%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	68.8%	95.3%	66.1%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:05+00:00	68.8%	96.6%	66.1%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	68.8%	96.6%	66.1%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	68.8%	96.6%	65.0%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	68.8%	96.6%	65.0%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	68.8%	96.6%	65.0%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	68.8%	96.6%	65.0%	52.7%	50.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	65.0%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	65.0%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	65.0%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	65.0%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	60.5%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	60.5%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	60.5%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	60.5%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	60.5%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	60.5%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	60.5%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:04+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	60.5%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	65.0%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	65.0%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	65.4%	96.6%	65.0%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	64.4%	96.6%	65.0%	51.8%	33.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	64.4%	96.6%	65.0%	51.8%	33.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	64.4%	96.6%	65.0%	51.8%	33.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	64.4%	96.6%	65.0%	51.8%	33.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	64.4%	96.6%	65.0%	51.8%	33.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	64.4%	98.8%	56.4%	51.8%	33.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	64.4%	98.8%	56.4%	51.8%	33.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	64.4%	98.8%	56.4%	51.8%	33.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	66.2%	98.8%	56.4%	52.9%	33.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	66.2%	98.6%	56.4%	52.9%	33.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	99%	73.2°F	2.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0002
National Blend	76%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0600
AIFS Single	66%	69.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1142
WeatherNext 2	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1901
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	0.1954
IFS HRES	53%	67.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2218
ICON	34%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.4409

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗