KBHM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

60%

38%

30%

18%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

HRESNO 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.85u · HRES −58.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	16.0%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	3.6%	62.6%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	29.2%	24.6%	2.4%	—	36.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	60.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	40.6%	31.7%	20.4%	—	37.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	45.4%	53.0%	35.8%	—	35.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	35.9%	71.2%	9.7%	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	0.0%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	8.7%	20.7%	21.3%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	4.3%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	17.8%	35.4%	10.1%	—	10.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	10.3%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	10.2%	20.9%	7.6%	—	12.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	16.5%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	7.2%	9.8%	9.8%	—	7.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	8.8%	14.0%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	8.2%	14.5%	3.4%	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	13.2%	10.1%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	7.7%	10.4%	1.2%	0.0%	5.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	6.0%	8.7%	0.0%	—	4.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	8.1%	9.0%	0.7%	1.2%	3.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	11.9%	8.2%	0.7%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	12.4%	7.5%	0.5%	0.0%	1.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	10.9%	5.3%	0.3%	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	5.3%	4.6%	0.2%	0.5%	0.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	4.3%	4.0%	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	3.7%	4.7%	0.2%	0.9%	0.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.9%	4.8%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	2.4%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.7%	1.6%	0.1%	—	0.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	76.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.4147
IFS Ensemble	60%	75.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.3624
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2959
WeatherNext 2	38%	73.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1475
National Blend	37%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1362
ICON	30%	72.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0918
IFS HRES	18%	69.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0320

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗