KBHM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

60%

38%

30%

18%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.15u

HRESNO 58.9¢Risks 58.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.85u · HRES −58.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:44+00:00	57.5%	69.0%	68.4%	55.5%	66.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	57.5%	69.0%	68.4%	55.5%	66.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	57.5%	69.0%	68.4%	55.5%	66.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	57.5%	69.0%	68.4%	55.5%	66.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	57.5%	69.0%	68.4%	55.5%	66.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	57.5%	69.0%	68.4%	55.5%	66.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	61.9%	69.0%	68.4%	55.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	61.9%	69.0%	68.4%	55.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	61.9%	69.0%	68.4%	55.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	61.9%	69.0%	68.4%	55.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00	61.9%	69.0%	68.4%	25.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	61.9%	59.6%	47.1%	25.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	61.9%	59.6%	47.1%	25.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	61.9%	59.6%	47.1%	25.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	58.0%	59.6%	47.1%	25.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	58.0%	59.6%	47.1%	25.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:14+00:00	58.0%	63.7%	47.1%	25.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	58.0%	63.7%	47.1%	25.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	58.0%	63.7%	47.1%	25.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	58.0%	63.7%	42.3%	25.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	58.0%	63.7%	42.3%	25.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	58.0%	63.7%	42.3%	25.5%	55.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	42.8%	63.7%	42.3%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	42.8%	63.7%	42.3%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	42.8%	63.7%	42.3%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	42.8%	63.7%	42.3%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	42.8%	63.7%	42.3%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	42.8%	63.7%	38.5%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	42.8%	63.7%	38.5%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	42.8%	63.7%	38.5%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	47.6%	63.7%	38.5%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	47.6%	63.7%	38.5%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	47.6%	63.7%	38.5%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-15T04:02:06+00:00	47.6%	63.7%	38.5%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	47.6%	63.7%	38.5%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	47.6%	63.7%	41.3%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	47.6%	63.7%	41.3%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	47.6%	63.7%	41.3%	25.0%	25.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00	35.6%	63.7%	41.3%	17.9%	30.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	35.6%	63.7%	41.3%	17.9%	30.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	35.6%	63.7%	41.3%	17.9%	30.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	35.6%	63.7%	41.3%	17.9%	30.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	35.6%	63.7%	41.3%	17.9%	30.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:17+00:00	35.6%	63.7%	38.4%	17.9%	30.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	35.6%	60.2%	38.4%	17.9%	30.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:18+00:00	35.6%	60.2%	38.4%	17.9%	30.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	64.4%	60.2%	38.4%	17.9%	30.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	64.4%	60.2%	38.4%	17.9%	30.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	76.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.4147
IFS Ensemble	60%	75.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.3624
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2959
WeatherNext 2	38%	73.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.1475
National Blend	37%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.1362
ICON	30%	72.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0918
IFS HRES	18%	69.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0320

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗