KBHM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

31%

22%

19%

19%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 25.6¢Risks 12.78u

EPSNO 74.4¢Risks 37.22u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +37.22u · EPS −37.22u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	10.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.2%	24.4%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	5.4%	4.0%	0.1%	—	7.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	9.0%	5.7%	2.7%	—	7.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	10.3%	14.2%	6.5%	—	6.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	5.9%	26.1%	0.6%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.0%	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.4%	1.9%	2.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.1%	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.2%	4.5%	0.5%	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.4%	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	1.4%	0.2%	—	0.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.8%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	0.3%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	53%	81.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2809
ICON	32%	75.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.1030
AIFS Single	31%	77.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0955
IFS HRES	22%	75.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0502
WeatherNext 2	19%	76.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0372
IFS Ensemble	19%	76.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0361

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗