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KBHM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
32%
AIFS
31%
HRES
22%
WN2
19%
EPS
19%
Consensus
24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 25.6¢Risks 12.78u
VS
EPSNO 74.4¢Risks 37.22u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +37.22u · EPS −37.22u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00AIFS Single: 18.1% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00AIFS Single: 30.9% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.8% · 2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.7% · 2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.0% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.1% · 2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.1% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.1% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.1% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.8% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.8% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.8% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.8% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.8% · 2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.8% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.8% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.8% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.3% · 2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.3% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.3% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.3% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.3% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.3% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.3% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00IFS HRES: 22.4% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00ICON: 11.1% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00ICON: 32.1% · 2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00ICON: 32.1% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00ICON: 32.1% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00ICON: 32.1% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00ICON: 32.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00ICON: 32.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00ICON: 32.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00ICON: 32.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00ICON: 32.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00ICON: 32.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00ICON: 32.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:0010-12 11:3510-12 19:5810-13 03:30
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:0011.9%16.8%22.1%36.4%11.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:0011.9%19.7%22.1%36.4%11.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:0011.9%19.7%22.1%36.4%11.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:0018.1%19.7%22.1%36.4%11.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:0018.2%19.7%22.2%36.4%11.1%
2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:0018.2%19.7%22.2%36.4%11.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:0018.2%19.0%22.2%36.4%11.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:0018.2%19.0%22.8%36.4%11.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:0018.2%19.0%22.8%36.4%11.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:0018.2%19.0%22.8%36.4%11.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:0018.2%19.0%22.8%36.4%11.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:0014.3%19.0%22.8%22.4%32.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:0014.3%19.0%22.8%22.4%32.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:0014.3%19.0%22.8%22.4%32.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:0014.3%19.0%22.8%22.4%32.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:0014.3%19.0%19.3%22.4%32.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:0014.3%19.0%19.3%22.4%32.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:0014.3%19.0%19.3%22.4%32.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:0014.3%19.0%19.3%22.4%32.1%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:0030.9%19.0%19.3%22.4%32.1%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:0030.9%19.0%19.3%22.4%32.1%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:0030.9%19.0%19.3%22.4%32.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend53%81.0°F6.6°F2026-10-12 06:000.2809
ICON32%75.9°F9.9°F2026-10-12 12:000.1030
AIFS Single31%77.7°F5.6°F2026-10-12 18:000.0955
IFS HRES22%75.7°F6.3°F2026-10-12 12:000.0502
WeatherNext 219%76.2°F5.0°F2026-10-12 12:000.0372
IFS Ensemble19%76.9°F4.1°F2026-10-12 00:000.0361

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗