KBHM / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

26%

18%

13%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 18.6¢Risks 18.55u

ICONNO 81.5¢Risks 81.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +81.45u · ICON −81.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	30.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	23.4%	—	—	30.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	29.5%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	6.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	1.7%	4.8%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	23.5%	0.8%	1.4%	—	23.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	47.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	20.4%	54.4%	7.4%	—	12.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	11.8%	27.7%	10.3%	—	8.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	19.5%	13.6%	4.9%	—	9.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.2%	0.0%	26.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	14.8%	9.7%	1.3%	—	8.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	12.8%	13.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	13.1%	11.3%	1.0%	—	7.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	9.6%	12.5%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	9.8%	12.9%	1.9%	—	9.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	12.7%	8.8%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.7%	7.9%	10.7%	1.9%	—	9.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	7.3%	8.4%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	7.8%	8.6%	3.5%	0.0%	9.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	12.7%	8.0%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	13.7%	6.6%	2.1%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	10.2%	6.0%	0.0%	—	5.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	7.2%	6.1%	1.2%	0.0%	2.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	7.8%	4.3%	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	8.0%	4.3%	0.8%	2.6%	4.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	7.7%	4.9%	0.6%	—	2.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	3.7%	6.1%	0.4%	2.2%	2.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	5.8%	4.7%	0.4%	—	2.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	6.8%	5.5%	1.0%	4.7%	4.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	7.0%	0.4%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	78.2°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	77.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	76.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	4%	73.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗